Pull up Southlake's housing numbers from three different sources on the same afternoon and you will get three different stories. One says the median sale price is $1.3 million. Another says the average home value is closer to $1.31 million. A third puts the median listing price above $2.1 million. None of these sources are wrong. They are measuring different things, in a market small enough that the differences matter more than usual.
That gap is the story. Southlake only closes somewhere between 20 and 40 homes in a typical month, which means a single week of estate sales can swing a citywide average by six figures. If you are comparing your own target price point against a number pulled from the wrong report, or the wrong month, you are shopping against a figure that was never built to describe the home you are actually looking at.
What five sources actually measured this spring
Here is what each report showed, and the window each one covers.
| Source | Figure | Window |
|---|---|---|
| Redfin | Median sale price $1.3M, down 0.56% year over year, $373 per square foot | March 2026 |
| Zillow Home Value Index | Average home value $1,313,920, up 2.5% year over year, homes pending in about 9 days | As of April 30, 2026 |
| Orchard | Median sale price $1,370,000, down 11.2% year over year, $357 per square foot, 31 homes sold | Trailing 30 days, late May 2026 |
| Realtor.com | Median listing price $2,197,787, 220 active listings, 35 median days on market | May 2026 |
| City of Southlake FY2026 Q1 Annual Development Report | Average sales price $1,704,880 across 76 home sales, up from $1,598,708 across 352 sales in FY2025 | Q1 FY2026 |
Some of that spread is methodology. A median sale price and a median listing price are not the same number, and neither one is the same as an average. Some of it is timing. A 30 day window in a market this thin can land on a run of estate closings or a lull, and the figure moves accordingly. None of these reports is lying to you. They are each answering a slightly different question, and the answer that matters is the one that matches the transaction you are actually trying to price.
The real spread lives inside the neighborhoods, not the city limits
Citywide figures also flatten something that anyone who has actually toured Southlake already knows: this is not one market wearing one price tag. It behaves like five or six markets stitched together under a single zip code.
- Timarron. Established in 1993 and built out mostly between 1992 and 2007, Timarron is the golf course anchored, resale dominated core of the city, spread across 14 sub-neighborhoods with homes ranging from the mid-$800s to well above $2.5 million depending on section and condition. Its two amenity centers, Bent Creek and Wentwood, still run the community pools and tennis courts that have anchored the neighborhood for three decades.
- Carillon. Newer construction along the north side near State Highway 114, planned for roughly 340 homes at full build-out, with pricing that runs from around $850,000 for villa-style product up to $4 million or more for the larger estates. Because the housing stock skews younger, price per square foot here tends to run ahead of the citywide figure.
- Clariden Ranch. Just north of Highway 114 on the west side of the city, across White Chapel Boulevard from Bob Jones Park, Clariden Ranch is 115 custom homes on one-plus acre lots that started going up in 2001. Pricing generally starts around $1 million and climbs from there. A recent listing on King Ranch Road, a 10,000 square foot custom home, was on the market at $3.95 million, giving a sense of how far the top of this pocket reaches.
- Reserve of Southlake and Tuscan Ridge. This is where the move-up tier tips into true estate territory, with recent listings for 5,000-plus square foot custom homes trading between $2.5 million and $3.5 million.
- New construction in the 76092 ZIP. Recent listings for new builds have priced above $575 per square foot, well ahead of Orchard's citywide figure of $357.
Line those pockets up and the gap between the cheapest and most expensive per-square-foot pricing in the city is wider than the year over year change in any single citywide median. A buyer anchoring on $1.3 million who then tours Carillon or a new-construction build is going to feel priced out of a market they are, in fact, still inside. A buyer anchoring on $2.5 million in Reserve of Southlake who then tours a Timarron resale on a shaded interior lot risks overpaying for what that specific pocket actually supports.
A boundary line that hasn't finished moving yet
There is a second layer to this, and it is one most citywide reporting leaves out entirely. On January 12, 2026, Carroll ISD's board of trustees voted unanimously to close Don T. Durham Intermediate School ahead of the 2027-28 school year. The district is moving from its current three-tier structure to a traditional K-5 elementary model, with all fifth graders staying on their home elementary campus and sixth through eighth graders consolidating into two middle school campuses, Carroll Middle School and a newly combined Dawson-Eubanks campus.
The vote followed a documented enrollment decline of roughly 655 to 855 students since 2019, tied to an estimated $7 to $8 million loss in annual state funding, since Texas school funding is calculated on average daily attendance. Board member Eric Lannen put the shift in plain terms during the meeting.
"It's not that kids are leaving because they don't want to be here."
The district plans to sell the Durham campus and its 30-acre site, with early estimates putting the sale in the $20 to $25 million range. None of this changes anything for the 2026-27 school year. The district has built in an intentional runway, and families currently attending a campus outside their eventual new boundary will be grandfathered until they naturally transition to the next level.
Here is why that runway matters for anyone shopping right now. A home that closes in 2026 sits inside the current feeder pattern through the 2026-27 school year. The district has said it expects to finalize new attendance boundaries by early 2027, ahead of the K-5 and consolidated middle school model taking effect that fall. For a relocating family thinking in five and ten year horizons, that means the elementary and middle school pairing tied to a specific address today is not guaranteed to be the pairing tied to that same address once the 2027-28 school year begins. Planning teams have floated draft configurations, but the district has stated plainly that no final feeder assignments have been approved.
What this changes about how you should shop, or price, in Southlake
Southlake is also closing in on build-out. City planning figures put the remaining undeveloped residential lots at fewer than 800, and annual building permits have fallen from around 180 in 2020 to roughly 65 in 2025. Combine that scarcity with a boundary map that is mid-redraw, and the pocket you choose starts to matter more than the citywide number you started with.
A few questions are worth asking before you anchor on any price at all:
- Which elementary and middle school does this specific address feed into for the 2026-27 school year, and is that pairing part of a draft realignment discussion?
- Is the comp you are using pulled from the same pocket, built in the same decade, on a similar lot size, or is it a citywide blend?
- How many days has this particular listing been active, and how many price reductions has it taken, rather than relying on a citywide average days-on-market figure?
- If you have multiple children, does the grandfathering language in the district's current plan keep them together on one campus through the transition?
None of this is a prediction about where boundaries will land. It is a reminder that the number everyone quotes describes a city, and the home you are buying or selling sits inside one specific pocket of it, at one specific moment in a boundary map that is still being finalized.
FAQ
Does the Durham Intermediate closure affect home values right now? Not directly and not yet. The closure does not take effect until the 2027-28 school year, and current students are grandfathered through their natural transition point. What it does affect is the confidence buyers can have in today's feeder pattern holding steady for the life of their ownership.
Which Southlake neighborhoods are most exposed to the boundary changes? Any address near a shifting feeder line carries more uncertainty than one solidly inside an established campus's draw area. Clariden Ranch already splits between Carroll ISD and Northwest ISD depending on location within the neighborhood, which is worth confirming address by address regardless of the Durham timeline.
Why do Zillow, Redfin, and the city's own report show such different numbers for the same period? They measure different things. Some report medians, some report averages, some report list prices, and some report closed sales. In a market that closes as few homes per month as Southlake does, those methodological differences produce real gaps rather than rounding errors.
If you are trying to figure out what a specific Southlake pocket actually supports, or you are preparing to list a home into a market that is being redrawn from the school boundary up, The Pistana Group can walk you through the pocket-level data before you write an offer or set a price. Request a Premium Listing Consultation and we will bring the comps, the timeline, and the specifics that a citywide median leaves out.
